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NATO Expansion: Root Cause of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Do CounterPunch, 6 de novembro 2026
Por Melvin Goodman


I have written hundreds of posts for CounterPunch, and one issue has led to severe criticism of my analysis. Identifying NATO expansion as the root cause of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine nearly five years ago has drawn skepticism and criticism from a variety of sources. But over the past week or so, Putin has explicitly identified NATO expansion as one of the root causes, and President Zelensky has explicitly acknowledged that any diplomatic solution to the war must include security guarantees not only for Ukraine, but for Russia as well.

In conversations with Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, and Norwegian prime minister, Jonas Gahr Store, Putin strongly emphasized that NATO expansion was among the “root causes” of the war and that root causes must be resolved as preconditions for any future peace negotiations. Putin’s reference to “root causes” is shorthand for Russia’s maximalist war demands that include “retrograding” the membership of many new NATO members recruited during the Clinton and Bush administrations. NATO’s members would not agree to this, but surely limits can be put on the numbers and capabilities of weapons systems placed on Russia’s western border.

Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul and many others believe that Putin’s strategy toward Ukraine is working, but the expansion of NATO on Russia’s border; the increased cooperation within NATO’s European membership; and several years of sanctions against Russia and of military support for Ukraine have placed Russia in a difficult bind. Germany and Poland have emerged with strong opposition toward Russia, and both have bolstered their military spending and deployments. In order to achieve greater economic growth and increased productivity, the Russians will not have the additional resources needed for investment and consumption.

Russia’s long-term plans will have to take into account that NATO has been strengthened overall and presents a genuine threat to Russia’s national security. Moscow’s foreign policy environment and its economic performance will remain uncertain, which will create problems for Putin’s leadership.

At some point, Russia will have to negotiate with the United States, but Washington must recognize that, if NATO expansion continues, it will create a permanent cold war situation with Moscow.

Even if Trump acknowledged that NATO expansion was one of the root causes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and considered security guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia, it would still leave him with a disastrous foreign policy record. Trump has wasted lives and treasure in the illegal and immoral war against Iran; has wasted military resources that are needed in far more pressing areas of U.S. national security; has left the United States without valuable and supportive allies, particularly in Europe; has abandoned one of the genuine heroes of the 21st century—Volodymyr Zelensky; and has embraced one of the truly evil figures—Benjamin Netanyahu.


Melvin A. Goodman is a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and a professor of government at Johns Hopkins University. A former CIA analyst, Goodman is the author of Failure of Intelligence: The Decline and Fall of the CIA and National Insecurity: The Cost of American Militarism. and A Whistleblower at the CIA. His most recent books are “American Carnage: The Wars of Donald Trump” (Opus Publishing, 2019) and “Containing the National Security State” (Opus Publishing, 2021). Goodman is the national security columnist for counterpunch.org.

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