Por John K. White
 |
Wind turbines, Columbia River Gorge. Photo: Jeffrey St. Clair. |
One simple observation since the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28 is that solar panel prices have not risen, staying at around $300 for an off-the-shelf, 400-watt commercial panel (7 cents/W for an industrial solar cell). But oil prices have risen, reaching $116 per barrel in the first week of hostilities, a 65% increase from the pre-war mark of $70/barrel, raising energy prices for everyone including American consumers at the pump.
US gasoline prices are roughly the same as in 2000 (adjusted for inflation), primarily because of an increased domestic supply of petroleum from hydraulic fracturing (the so-called “shale gale”), despite many known dangers (earthquakes, water poisoning, toxic air). But war in the Middle East has once again raised oil prices around the world, similar to the OPEC oil embargo after the Yom Kippur War in 1973 (First Oil Shock) and the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution (Second Oil Shock), although long car lines have not yet formed as in the ‘70s.
Attempting to calm the fears about more shocks, Donald Trump stated that higher oil prices “is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace.” In his usual tone-deaf way, he added “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.” Indeed oil companies do, but not consumers.
In purely economic terms, the big winners since the start of the US-Israel attack are American oil companies, such as Exxon, Chevron, and Occidental, seeing increased profits on safe domestic supplies without having to pay a war surcharge. As noted by the Financial Times, oil groups will reap a $63 billion windfall “from Gulf war disruption” if 2026 crude prices average $100/barrel. Companies without holdings in the Middle East, traders without tankers needing to transit the narrow Strait of Hormuz, and global arms dealers also benefit.
Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest petroleum reserve (300 billion barrels), will also benefit as old contracts are renewed, although extraction can’t be ramped up overnight in its rusted industry, while the thicker Orinoco crude requires more refining. Canadian oil sands and US fracking (already at historic highs) will also fill the gap with increased extraction.
Russia may be the biggest winner, able to sell previously sanctioned supplies, mostly to China and India, thanks to a temporary one-month US waiver given to calm energy markets. We will see how temporary. The Russia bump is especially damaging to Ukraine, which will suffer more aggression just as Russia’s war chest was being depleted by sanctions. The floating Russian tanker fleet will also finally be able to dock. Increased Russian sales alone, however, will not lower prices as the global oil market was already oversupplied, absorbing the initial shock, while springtime in the northern hemisphere lessens the need for heating oil. Nonetheless, a $100+/barrel market is here for a while.
The main losers are consumers and taxpayers everywhere. The US Pentagon estimated the first six days of war cost American taxpayers $11.3 billion, while Russia could receive an additional $10 billion per month from increased sales at higher prices, a US-Russian money pipeline. Blood money. Higher inflation and increased immigration will follow. The Gulf states have been left to fend for themselves despite a large US military presence. The environment will also suffer from increased heavy-oil refining, dirty oil-sands extraction, fracking, and toxic fouling. And, of course, millions of war-stricken citizens across the Middle East and Ukraine.
Believing Donald Trump is a fool’s game as many are still learning. His “no wars” Big Lie duped the world. The consequences for Iran include widespread death and destruction, but the US has also been damaged. What negotiator would trust the US again? Which countries would change policy based on US assurances? Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice (thrice, …), shame on me. Expect more unpredictability and mistrust from already spooked allies. And more blowback.
Price volatility will increase throughout the war and longer if large sections of petroleum infrastructure are destroyed in the Persian Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz remains impassible, if only to American shipping. Saudi Arabia can divert some Strait of Hormuz exports (6 million barrels/day) overland via pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, but other Gulf countries won’t be able to secure the world’s most vulnerable chokepoint, where 20% of daily oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports once flowed.
Releasing strategic reserves (US, 400 million barrels) and lowering taxes in western countries can help lower prices (or keep them rising further). Spain, Germany, and Ireland have already started offering tax rebates, fuel allowances, and lower excise duties, while Ireland has fast-tracked plans for more renewable energy to reduce the demand on foreign petroleum supplies. Other countries will soon follow.
Expect more senseless tit-for-tat oil manipulations (destroying infrastructure, blocking exports). The potential for a catastrophic event at any of the Gulf oil depots is high, including Iran’s main storage hub on Kharg Island that holds 90% of Iranian oil (85% of which is sent to China). An explosion there or at any of the other Gulf export depots – Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest – would cause more environmental damage than in the 1991 Gulf War (450 million gallons), many times worse than the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill from a faulty blowout protector (200 million gallons) or the 1989 Exxon Valdez punctured hull caused by human error (11 million gallons).
Damage to the South Pars-North Dome natural gas field – the world’s largest, shared between Iran and Qatar – is also a major environmental worry, already hit by a targeted Israel-US airstrike, about which Trump initially denied knowing. After Iran retaliated with an airstrike on Qatar’s LNG production at Ras Laffan, which processes 20% of the world’s LNG supply, Trump threatened to “massively blow up” the South Pars field if Iran continued to attack Qatari LNG sites.
Trump has also threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if tanker traffic is not allowed to freely transit the Gulf, which would likely cause excessive civilian damage. In response, Iran threatened to “irreversibly destroy” infrastructure in the Middle East if the United States attack its energy installations. Food shortages and lack of fertilizer are now increasing. Madness upon madness.
The purpose of the February 28 US attacks still hasn’t been made clear, other than to support Israel. But the resultant US participation may be to reduce Iran’s oil exports to increase American and Russian sales or weaken the NATO defence alliance and Ukraine. The motives could be that craven. Trump has already threatened NATO with a “very bad future” for not supporting his “short-term excursion.”
Whatever the goal, the rush to renewables will grow. There may be no alternative to stop more oil shocks. Or get the world back on a path to peace and curb global warming. The countries most impacted by reduced oil supplies will turn to safer alternatives, especially China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. American influence will continue to wane.
Perhaps we are finally seeing the end of oil after eight decades of conflict, ever since Franklin Roosevelt secretly met the Saudi king Ibn Saud in 1945 aboard the USS Quincy on Great Bitter Lake in the Suez Canal on Roosevelt’s return home from the Big Three Yalta Conference. The resultant arrangement to develop the vast Saudi Arabian oil fields would become known as “solidification,” code for American aid in exchange for oil. At the same time, British colonial power was eroded across the region. The US effectively carved up the world, ensuring American companies would control the best oil.
The Venezuela and Iran spectacles show the world that the US can do whatever it wants whenever it wants. There needn’t be a reason, although Jimmy Carter did state in his 1980 State of the Union address after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, “An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary including military force.” Knowingly or not, Trump has put those words into action in the bluntest way possible.
There is nothing good about war, but more countries will think seriously about speeding the transition from oil to renewables. With renewable energy, no environmental damage from extraction, transportation, refining, filling, and burning; no need of foreign military bases to protect supply chains; no outsized top-down energy management. The world now sees that “Drill baby, drill” means “Kill baby, kill.”
There is plenty to do, but we are on the way. New energy installations last year were 85% renewables. Storage capacity and load sharing continues to grow to manage intermittency. Everywhere, the world is turning to renewables, from the small (shared neighborhood geothermal heating, bladeless wind turbines, plug-in balcony solar panels) to the big (60-GW green hydrogen electrolyzer in Texas, €1 trillion North Sea offshore wind farm, 2-GW Indian photovoltaic solar farm).
The potential is limitless: electric buses, ferries, short-haul planes, solar shingles, windows, awnings, cladding, parking lots, rotating sunflowers, water heating, floating, canal canopies, agrivoltaics, expanded bi-directional rooftop solar, P2P trading, household electrical storage, networked microgrids, smart buildings, home retrofits, district heating, and induction stoves, along with more sharing, the circular economy, zero-waste programs, right-to-repair, no to plastic, and decentralization. The steel and cement industries are also slowly being decarbonized, while electric vehicle sales are rising despite a recent slow-down other than in China (half of all new car sales) as are gasmobile-electric refits.
As American imperial control loosens, the United States will regret not leading the way to a greener future. China is surpassing the US in new thinking and new technology, especially renewables (wind, solar, storage). But every country has the potential to create their own energy without depending on distant resources that threaten their security and safety. Self-sufficiency should be the goal and the promise for all. The light at the end of the tunnel isn’t the light of an oncoming train. It is the sun.
John K. White, a former lecturer in physics and education at University College Dublin and the University of Oviedo. He is the editor of the energy news service E21NS and author of The Truth About Energy: Our Fossil-Fuel Addiction and the Transition to Renewables (Cambridge University Press, 2024) and Do The Math!: On Growth, Greed, and Strategic Thinking (Sage, 2013). He can be reached at: johnkingstonwhite@gmail.com
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário